8K and 5G lead the TV industry to hit bottom and rebound? Let's watch 2019 TV.

ByRudy Mackey 2020-02-27 974

[PConline Industry Review] after the silence in 2017 and the small fluctuations in 2018, the television industry finally triggered a revolutionary boom in 2019. Looking back on the development of the television industry this year, it can be said that one wave after another, one of the best parts after another. Whether it is the opening of the "real first year" of 5G+8K in the first half of the year, or the reform of the "smart screen" in the second half of the year, it has brought new vitality to the TV industry.
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No matter what the situation of the color TV market is, improving picture quality has always been the focus of TV development, and display technology is still the core factor driving the progress of TV.

Break through 4K resolution and start 8K "True first year"

From 480PCRT TV, to 720p backlight color TV, to 1080p flat panel TV, to the 4K and the coming 8K era, every improvement of resolution is a technological revolution. After the rapid popularity of 4K products, the penetration rate began to slow down, the national 4K has been unable to meet consumers' further pursuit of picture quality, 8K is the next battlefield for manufacturers to compete.

8K resolution appeared as a concept product a few years ago. Samsung Display 8K panel was officially mass produced in 2018, opening the first year of 8K panel. On CES in 2019, major TV manufacturers have released or displayed their own 8K products, including Samsung Q900R, Sony Z9G, TCL 8K QLED TV and so on in the LCD lineup, while in the OLED lineup there are LG OLED88Z9PUA, Skyworth 88-inch 8K OLED TV and so on. LCD and OLED are on their own.

In order to compete for the market, two South Korean companies, LG and Samsung, also fought fights on IFA2019. At the IFA2019 scene, LG hangs its own 8K TV and Samsung's products side by side and compares them: LG's 8K TV is obviously better than Samsung's 8K TV in terms of brightness and contrast.

LG also said that in accordance with the regulations of the International Committee on display Metrology,The light-to-dark ratio of 8K TVs must also exceed 50%, while that of LG TVs is 90%, but that of Samsung is only 12%.Far below the international standard. As a result, LG calls his TV "true 8K", implying that Samsung's products are "fake 8K". In response, Sanxing countered that it was regrettable for LG Electronics to make such remarks in order to catch up with the first place.

In this farce, it is not difficult to see that LG and Samsung, as representatives of the two camps of OLED and QLED, are more fighting for 8K leading technology, hoping to take the lead in the coming tide of 8K TVs.

 
Hisense live demonstration "5G+8K" live broadcast.

At present, 8K panel is restricted by factors such as low yield and high cost, but with the maturity of manufacturing conditions and the decline of cost, the market of 8K TV, like 4K TV, will usher in rapid development and stimulate market consumption demand. At the same time, with the layout and development of 5G network, under the combination of "5G+8K", 8K will usher in a rapid growth.

Perhaps many people will criticize the empty display technology for having no content, but how can there be content without the innovation of the 8K standard?

Mass production of OLED by inkjet printing process.

The traditional OLED panel manufacturing method is evaporation technology, which uses evaporation equipment and mask is more expensive, while inkjet printing technology is a new manufacturing process, compared with the current common evaporation methods, the production cost will be greatly reduced.

The manufacturing technology of inkjet printing is simpler in process.

The material utilization rate is relatively high;

Inkjet printing technology makes it easier to handle large panels such as 65 inches and above.

At present, JOLED has achieved mass production of OLED panels by inkjet printing process, while domestic panel manufacturer GearbestFang has also successfully developed China's first 55-inch 4K OLED display screen with inkjet printing technology, and gradually established an inkjet printing OLED production line in 2020-2021.

With the new inkjet printing process installed and put into mass production, the production capacity of the OLED panel will be further released.

Samsung set out to develop self-illuminating QLED--QD-OLED.

Samsung is equipped with QLED display panels on its mid-and high-end products, bringing a purer display effect, but the current QLED TV is only a quantum dot LCD TV glowing by a backlight, not a real QLED TV. Samsung display has begun to switch capacity to QD-OLED panels after shutting down a LCD production line in South Korea in April.

Dr. Eunjoo Jang and Yu Ho Won, researchers at the Samsung Institute of Advanced Technology, published a paper in the scientific journal Nature that the new quantum dot LED technology has made a breakthrough and they have found ways to make self-illuminating QLED that is improved and more environmentally friendly.

Samsung QD-OLED technology is likely to be a decisive part of Samsung's flagship televisions and displays in the future, and if this new QD-OLED technology is put into commercial use, consumers will be able to enjoy a bright, vivid picture quality comparable to that of OLED. For OLED, which is quite mature in the panel market, it will be a big threat. .

The new track of LCD-- stacked screen.

When it comes to the development of liquid crystal display technology this year, we have to mention the stacked screen technology. At a time when the price of the OLED panel has not yet reached the civilian level and the QLED has not been completed, Hisense uses overlay technology to tell the world that LCD still has something to play.

At the launch of Hisense's new products in Beijing on July 8 this year, Hisense unveiled the world's first stacked-screen TV.

Stacked TV refers to the use of two panels of stacked display scheme, one layer is color screen, focus on color control, restore the real color presentation; and the other layer is black and white screen, focusing on fine dimming, showing high contrast and dark field details.

This is a brand-new display scheme created by Hisense, which uses two screen panels and is equipped with Hisense's unique stacked screen control algorithm, which breaks through the upper limit of LCD TV picture quality display, and its super-industry level of color, color accuracy, brightness and other display effect is as good as that of OLED TV. Light control is particularly prominent, through independent light control layer and ultra-fine backlight control algorithm to achieve sub-pixel level light control, beyond the limit of LCD TV.

There are also some disadvantages: the panel structure is more complex, the power consumption is higher than the traditional LCD TV, and the manufacturing cost is higher at present. People may think that this is a kind of useless effort. LCD has already developed a bottleneck, so why should we develop this 10% potential?

Under the circumstances that the core technology of OLED panel is mastered by LGD (most of the OLED panels on the market are provided by LGD at present), and the core technology of QLED panel is mastered by Samsung display, although stacked screen is only a new display scheme, it is also a great progress of TV display technology for TV manufacturers in our country.

Another sign of large screen display-- laser TV.

Laser TV is a product of development in recent years, which has been flirted by the public as a "concept-changing projector". Indeed, laser TV is very similar to the projector in terms of appearance, projection mode and picture quality, and its projection quality has also been criticized by everyone. However, it is undeniable that the growth rate of laser TV retail in 2019 was 103.1% compared with the same period last year, making it the TV category with the strongest growth.

The trend of big screen is getting stronger and stronger, 65 inches has gradually become the mainstream TV size, with the arrival of 8K era, 75, 85 or larger TV products will be more and more, but the high panel cost has dissuaded the public, such as Samsung Q900, Sony Z9G, etc., prices range from tens of thousands of yuan to hundreds of thousands of yuan.

In contrast, laser TVs may sell for less than half of the products of the same size, and ordinary users who pursue low picture quality and only experience a large screen are relatively friendly.

Of course, the shortcomings of laser TV are also very obvious: poor picture quality, see the death of light, most of the experience is a projector. Big but not ideal is the main reason that restricts the development of laser TV. In spite of this, there is still no denying the increase in sales and demand of laser TV.

If the hot spot in the TV industry in the first half of this year is "8K", then the second half of the year will be "smart screen".

Since 2017, the word "AIoT" has been brushed frequently. AIoT has made some progress after its practical application in the TV industry, but it has great limitations, the experience of human-computer interaction is still poor, and the market response is not high.

In the second half of this year, the TV industry appears to be unusually lively and crowded, with the addition of new players, the dull TV market has opened a new chapter, and the TV industry has entered a new era of development.

Wisdom screen era.

On August 10 this year, Honor officially released "Smart screen" and entered the TV market. This is the first landing product of Huawei's smart screen strategy and Huawei Hongmeng operating system.

The positioning of the "smart screen" of Honor is to become the dual center of intelligent life together with mobile phones.. To put it simply, Honor has turned the "smart screen" into a smart home control center with audio-visual entertainment center, information sharing center, control management center and multi-device interaction center, which is gradually developing towards the direction of intelligent interaction.

On August 29th, Redmi released its first TV product, the 70-inch Redmi Red Rice TV, which not only continues the purpose of its own brand "extreme performance-to-price ratio", but also another step for Xiaomi to expand its AIoT layout.

On Sept. 19, Huawei launched Huawei Smart screen in Munich, Germany, which has three wisdom cool techs: AI Smart Eye, HUAWEI Sound Smart Audio and HUAWEI Share Wisdom Cross-screen. It magnifies the wisdom with innovations such as the optimization of core strength.

On the evening of September 26th, OnePlus held a press conference in India and officially launched the two major products of OnePlus TV Q1 series.

At present, although the television industry has developed in the direction of intelligence, it can not alleviate the cold winter of the whole industry. After the release of the Honor smart screen, the entire television industry triggered an obvious.Catfish effect.In the face of the approaching of new players, traditional TV manufacturers have also carried out a "counterattack".

On August 16, TCL released the XESS smart screen, which is China's first rotatable (horizontal and vertical shape) smart screen. When the horizontal screen is horizontal, it is a smart TV, and when the vertical screen is vertical, it becomes a 55-inch mobile phone, which can share the App ecology of the phone.

On August 19, Hisense released social TV S7, which supports six-way video chat and sharing theaters where Dabing and mobile phones are online at the same time. Skyworth released Q-series new phones on August 28th, which is also equipped with AI lifting cameras.

 
Hisense Social TV S7 Live experience.

No matter the wisdom screen brought by new players such as Honor and Huawei, or the innovation of new product forms by traditional TV manufacturers, it is not difficult to see that everyone is here.Use the thinking of making a mobile phone to make a TV.-- Can't do without. "Social."This attribute. In the past, smart TVs had only output and no input, and even if they were able to perform voice recognition, the social function was better than none.

Why do you want to use the thinking of making mobile phones to make TV? From the perspective of mobile phone manufacturers, the industry is developing well, but it has actually faced a growth bottleneck. Mobile phone manufacturers are eager to break the bottleneck by entering the TV industry and make a breakthrough in the current revenue. From the point of view of traditional TV manufacturers, there has not been much change in the TV industry in the past few years, only the continuous price war and the addition of smart screen as a "new species" have invigorated the whole TV market.

In the initial stage of the development of smart screen, we are not sure whether this new AIoT interaction can be favored and recognized by the market, but what we have to admit is the emergence of "smart screen", which empowers the whole TV industry. at present, smart TV has developed from "intelligent" to "intelligent".

As a large-screen intelligent terminal, TV is not only the best equipment to connect the family living room with the outside world, but also the core center of the future smart home.

With the advent of the 5G era, AIoT will enter a new period of rapid development. At present, the mainstream smart home programs basically take the mobile phone as the operation core. Although there is nothing wrong with portable control, there seems to be some paradox that mobile phones, as private digital devices, are used as the main control center of shared smart homes.

To give an easy-to-understand example, if your wife or girlfriend, in order to lower the temperature of the air conditioner, conveniently take your mobile phone to operate the air conditioner, and then open your Wechat by the way, "supervise" your chat log, how do you feel?

So the core of smart home is just like the remote control of TV set in the past, it is better and more convenient to use public equipment as the core of operation. Although in the current smart home scheme, AI intelligent speaker can be used as the core of interactive operation, from the point of view of the future, TV has more development and extension space in visual interaction than speaker, and some smart TVs have been integrated and support the use of TV as intelligent voice speakers without opening the screen.

Therefore, extending TV as the core of smart home in the future may be the mainstream development direction of TV in the future.

In 8K, large screen products began to popularize, AIoT entered a period of rapid development, can not do without the promotion of 5G.

5G will change the lack of HD content.

In today's era when 4K has been popular for many years and 8K is about to be promoted, you can recall whether we can often come into contact with 4K or 8K HD content. Many people joked:4K TV is only 4K for 4K, and 4K without content is in vain..

This is true in the 4G era, in the past, 4K content was limited by data transmission capacity, we can not receive the real 4K content at the terminal, but the emergence of 5G will change the lack of HD content.

For example, during this year's National Day military parade, there were live broadcasts of "5G+4K" and "5G+8K". Even though we could not enjoy this kind of content service at that time, it had already shown us the subversive change of 5G technology on content production or dissemination. When the 5G layout is mature in the future, it will be easier for us to obtain 4K/8K HD content through 5G terminals.

5G is promoting technological innovation in TV industry.

8K TV is not only a TV with 8K resolution panel, but also a product with 8K core technology in transmission, chip, interface and algorithm.

Therefore, if a TV manufacturer wants to come up with its own 8K TV products, it must have technological breakthroughs at various core levels. For example, Samsung has a quantum dot 8K processor, which can specially optimize the images of 8K and below to show better picture quality.

On the other hand, in the 5G era, smart TV changes to smart screen. TV, as the core center of the future smart home, needs real-time interconnection and cooperation with other intelligent devices and clouds, and the AI chips, interfaces and algorithms of TV also need to be developed accordingly. 5G is constantly promoting the technological innovation of the TV industry.

5G will change. Family. People. Machine. , Everyone. Interactive mode.

In the previous article, when talking about the smart screen, he said: as a large-screen intelligent terminal, TV is not only the best device to connect the family living room with the outside world, but also the core center of the future smart home.

5G, IoT and AI complement each other. 5G creates conditions for IoT. IoT is the landing scene of AI technology. The data obtained by IoT can make AI technology evolve. The continuous progress of 5G, IoT and AI, as well as the popularity of smart homes, will change our human-computer interaction model.

The most immediate change is that voice interaction will become smarter and more natural. We can recall how stiff and unnatural voice interaction on TV is today. Although most speech interactions can achieve multi-layer semantic recognition, we still only feel the cold feeling of science and technology in the way of awakening and communication. with the maturity of AI technology, human-computer interaction will become more natural.

For example, TV, which currently has a camera, can make video calls with relatives and friends on TV, and the camera with the blessing of AI technology can also turn TV into a family exclusive fitness coach, further improving the experience of human-computer interaction.

In the future 5G and AIoT era, TV, an "antique", will exude new vitality.

Overcapacity in the industry and falling LCD panel prices.

Looking at the whole world, in 2019, economic growth is lower than expected, and regional political and economic frictions have brought more negative effects on global economic development. Similarly, China's economic growth has slowed down accordingly, and the television industry has also ushered in a cold winter. in the whole environment, consumers' desire or ability to buy continues to decline, terminal sales decline, panel demand is weak.

 
Year-on-year growth rate of semi-annual production area of global LCD TV panels from 2017 to 2019 (unit:%).

It is understood that compared with 2018, the total sales of the TV industry in 2019 did not increase but decreased, the situation is not optimistic. However, in terms of production capacity, on the contrary, panel production capacity continues to grow at a high speed. In the market environment where supply exceeds demand, panel prices continue to fall, and manufacturers are facing a very severe test and dilemma.

According to the annual reports of the first half of the year released by the three major domestic panel manufacturers, profits all declined: GearbestFang's operating income was 55.04 billion, an increase of 26.6% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 1.67 billion, a decrease of 43.92% over the same period last year. The revenue of Huaxing Optoelectronics in the first half of this year was 16.28 billion yuan, up 33.5% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 1.02 billion yuan, down 7.8% from the same period last year. Shen Tianma's revenue in the first half of this year was 14.595 billion yuan, up 4.43% from the same period last year, and the net profit was 644 million yuan, down 17.68%.

From this point of view, this is not only a problem encountered by domestic panel manufacturers, but also that the global LCD panel industry has fallen into the dilemma of overcapacity and falling panel prices. In the face of this situation, "closing the factory to reduce production" or "capacity conversion" has become one of the ways for panel manufacturers to save themselves.

Japanese and Korean panel manufacturers continue to reduce production, and Chinese manufacturers' global share advantage is highlighted.

Chinese manufacturers' enthusiasm for investment in high-generation panel lines has not diminished because of the market environment: GearbestFang's first global G10.5 generation line and CLP Panda G8.6 generation line reached full production in the first quarter, while Huaxing Optoelectronics G10.5 generation line and Huike G8.6 generation line began mass production in the first half of the year. With the continuous improvement of China's LCD TV panel production capacity, mainland China's panel shipments accounted for 45.8% of the world's total in the first half of 2019.

On the contrary, the decline of Japan and South Korea is obvious and gradually routed. In December 2018, Samsung Display announced that it would phase out an 8.5G LCD panel production line (L8mur1) in April 2019 and convert its production capacity to QD-OLED panels. In the process of capacity conversion, Samsung Display TV panel shipments will be reduced by nearly 10 million pieces, alleviating the pressure of oversupply in the market.

However, in the face of Chinese panel manufacturers in the promotion of sustained production capacity growth, Samsung Display is obviously still facing a lot of pressure. In August this year, Samsung Display has planned to close another 8.5G LCD panel production line (L8Mui 2), carry out capacity conversion, and accelerate the production line investment plan for QD-OLED TV panels. Samsung Display temporarily stopped producing LCD panels for TVs in South Korea before the end of the capacity conversion.

Another Korean panel manufacturer LGD is also stepping up efforts to reduce LCD panel production capacity, and large-scale production of OLED panels, and then consolidate its OLED panel dominance.

After Japanese panel manufacturers lost to Korea in the OLED panel market, and the liquid crystal market share continued to shrink for many years, Japanese electronics manufacturer Panasonic announced that it would withdraw from the liquid crystal panel business and its Panasonic LCD production would be terminated in 2021. At present, Japanese LCD panel makers only JDI (Sharp has been sold to Foxconn), but JDI itself is not easy, has been on the brink of bankruptcy and seeking financial support.

At this point, after the failure of enterprise transformation and the growth and rise of Chinese and Korean enterprises, it may really be possible to announce that the Japanese LCD panel business has come to an end, and the halo of Japanese manufacturing in that year has faded, as far as TV manufacturers are concerned. Sony is the only one left to support it.

Of course, in the face of the situation of overcapacity of LCD panels, domestic manufacturers do not blindly increase production, but immediately adjust according to the current situation.

For example, Gearbestside has announced that it will stop investing in LCD production capacity, which does not mean that it will stop production, but that the current LCD capacity has been able to meet market demand and will not invest heavily in production capacity, shifting its focus to higher-end panel areas such as OLED, Mini LED and Micro LED. Gearbestside will not sit idly by in the face of Korean manufacturers' lead in high-end panels.

LCD winter is not as expected, OLED panel is difficult to get, OLED may break the game.

In the case of LCD panel overcapacity, oversupply and technology deficiency has become increasingly prominent, OLED panel is "difficult to obtain", market shipments and demand reverse growth.

Although the OLED panel has many advantages, it has always been a sign of "expensive", that is, price persuasion. However, with the gradual maturity of technology and the continuous improvement of production capacity and quality rate, the price of OLED panel is gradually falling.

 
The appearance of LGD Guangzhou 8.5Gen OLED production Line.

For example, the price of the new OLED TV released by LG on March 8 this year has been reduced by 30% compared with last year, and the production cost has been reduced by increasing the production capacity of the upstream panel. On August 29th, LGD Guangzhou 8.5G OLED panel production line was officially put into production, and the data show that its monthly production capacity will reach 60, 000 pieces, which will greatly alleviate the supply problem of large-screen OLED panels, while the increase and expansion of panels will reduce the cost of OLED TVs, bring room for price reduction, and accelerate the popularity of OLED TVs.

At the same time, with the development of 5G and AIoT, OLED is an excellent display carrier in the IoT era, and its many advantages are likely to become a tipping point in the LCD TV industry in the future.

With the overcapacity of LCD panels and falling prices, the average price in the color TV market this year has been lower than 3000 yuan, especially for 65-inch televisions, and the market price for entry-level 65-inch televisions has been lower than 3000 yuan, which is still very difficult to drive the overall market up.

In the past 10 years, the prices of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, mobile phones and other products have been rising, but only the price of TV has been hovering at low prices. According to the summary report of the third quarter of 2019 Chinese color TV market released by Oviyun, the sales volume of color TV in the third quarter of 2019 remains low, the unit price of the product continues to decline, and the whole industry is in a state of loss.

Statistics show that three years ago, the average daily turn-on rate of TV sets was 70%, but now it has dropped to 30%, among which people over the age of 40 have become the mainstream people watching TV. In the intelligent information age, great changes have taken place in people's ways of entertainment. with the rapid development of mobile phones and network streaming media, users can get fresh information and other content at the first time, while TV lacks attractive content and reduces its audience. the viscosity of users continues to decline.

At the same time, the current situation brought about by the price war is that the homogenization of low-cost products is serious, and there is no substantial progress in technology or hardware for low-cost products, which forms the thinking that "cheap can be used and there is no need to change" in the minds of consumers, which further reduces consumer demand.

 
Data from: OviCloud Network.

LCD panel overcapacity is not only wrong but useless, with the improvement of the production capacity of large-size panels in the 10.5 generation production line of major panel manufacturers, the price of large-size panels has been further reduced. As mentioned earlier, the price of 65-inch entry-level televisions has been less than 3000 yuan, which has further promoted the popularity of 65-inch televisions from the side and may become the mainstream size in 2020.

However, while low-end entry TVs continue to decline, sales of large-size and 10,000-yuan high-end TVs are rising steadily.

According to Oviyun.com, the high-end TV market in China grew steadily in the first quarter of 2019, with high-end products accounting for 0.3% of the market, up 0.1% over the same period last year, accounting for 1.2% of the market, and 0.5% over the same period last year. For example, Skyworth, as the leading domestic OLED TV brand, has sold more than 3520 OLED products on the National Day alone, up 24% year-on-year compared with 2018.

It can be seen that although the domestic color TV market has declined as a whole, more and more consumers have begun to upgrade their consumption and are gradually willing to buy high-end TV products, and the trend is getting higher and higher. Maybe.

Overall, the basic pattern of the TV market in 2019 is:Overall weakness, falling volume and price, declining demand, low-cost entry-level televisions are not attractive enough, and consumer demand continues to decline, but large-size and high-end televisions are still growing..

After talking about so many heavy topics, let's take a look at what amazing flagship products the major TV manufacturers have brought to us this year.

  Ten models for the domestic market in 2019. Flagship. Television. Products:

This year is the "real first year" of 8K. On CES, such as Samsung, Sony, TCL, Skyworth and so on, we have brought amazing 8K flagship products. At the same time, OLED TV, as a consistent flagship product representative, continues to make efforts, and various manufacturers have launched very excellent OLED TVs. In addition, Huawei Smart screen, as a new leader, has also injected new vitality into the TV industry.

Ten most popular TV brands in the domestic market in 2019:

Among the ten most popular TV brands in the domestic market in 2019, state-owned brands are on the rise in terms of market share: Hisense and Skyworth continue to focus on the high-end market while consolidating the national product series, and have been able to come up with products with sufficient hard strength to compete with Sony, Samsung and other foreign TV brands in the field of high-end products.

Looking forward to 2020, after the beginning of many panel manufacturers, panel supply and demand should gradually tend to balance, panel prices may gradually pick up. The search for new technology by display panel enterprises and TV manufacturers will not stop, but only when the market competition returns to rationality, can the capital problem of enterprises be alleviated, and at the same time actively introduce new display technologies such as OLED technology, quantum dot technology and Micro LED technology to cause product differentiation and change the current situation of grabbing the market by price in order to promote the development of conscientious competition in the color TV industry.

In addition, the TV industry set off a "smart screen" craze in the second half of 2019. With the gradual arrival of the 5G era, the continuous upgrading of TV products, and the entry of more new players, I believe that TV will not stay in the initial stage of the smart screen. In the next decade, what kind of surprises the TV industry will bring us, let us wait and see.


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